Author Archives: Scott Fullwiler

The Sector Financial Balances Model of Aggregate Demand and Austerity

By Scott Fullwiler

As Stephanie Kelton has recently published two excellent pieces explaining the sector balances in the context of government “belt tightening” (see here and here), a logical next step is to present this in the sector financial balances model of aggregate demand. This post will only briefly review that model before applying it to austerity policies; those desiring more complete background can find it here, and a printable version here. Posts by several others describing various aspects of the model are also linked to therein.

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Helicopter Drops Are FISCAL Operations

By Scott Fullwiler

Given all the chatter in the blogosphere about “Helicopter Ben” Bernanke, it’s probably time to look more carefully at the actual accounting behind so-called “helicopter drops of money,” made famous years ago by Milton Friedman. As most everyone knows, the idea behind a hypothetical helicopter drop is that the central bank would essentially drop currency from a helicopter in an effort to stimulate aggregate spending. One could modernize the story and presume that the central bank credits X number of dollars to the bank (deposit) accounts of all (or even some) individuals. And while traditionally it’s been presumed that it would be the Fed that would be dropping money from the helicopter(s), it could just as easily be action taken by the Treasury – e.g. by requiring the Treasury to take an overdraft on its account at the central bank via mandate from Congress and the President.

What If the Government Just Prints Money?

By Scott Fullwiler

As Congress gets set in the near future to consider raising the debt ceiling yet again, my fellow blogger L. Randall Wray creatively suggests not raising the debt ceiling but instead having the Treasury continue spending as it always does: by simply crediting bank accounts. As he puts it:

The anti-deficit mania in Washington is getting crazier by the day. So here is what I propose: let’s support Senator Bayh’s proposal to “just say no” to raising the debt ceiling. Once the federal debt reaches $12.1 trillion, the Treasury would be prohibited from selling any more bonds. Treasury would continue to spend by crediting bank accounts of recipients, and reserve accounts of their banks. Banks would offer excess reserves in overnight markets, but would find no takers—hence would have to be content holding reserves and earning whatever rate the Fed wants to pay. But as Chairman Bernanke told Congress, this is no problem because the Fed spends simply by crediting bank accounts.
This would allow Senator Bayh and other deficit warriors to stop worrying about Treasury debt and move on to something important like the loss of millions of jobs.

The Sector Financial Balances Model of Aggregate Demand—Revised

By Scott Fullwiler

Given the recent posts by Daniel Negreiros Conceição and Eric Tymoigne to this blog, and conversations both in the comments section and privately, a revision of my previous post on the topic of modeling the sector financial balances is in order. As before, earlier posts by Rob Parenteau, and Bill Mitchell, in addition to later posts by Daniel and Eric, describe many of the details of this approach and how they fit the graph posted by Paul Krugman. Rob is correct to suggest this would be a much better framework for understanding macroeconomics than the traditional IS-LM model, which was highly flawed to begin. My purpose here is as before is to build on these posts and demonstrate a few uses of the model.First, it must be noted that what we are doing here is merely putting a simple graphical representation to a model that has already been in wide use by many of us for years, and the details for which have been elaborated in much more complex models commonly referred to as “stock-flow consistent models” developed by Wynne Godley, Genarro Zezza, Claudio Dos Santos, Marc Lavoie, and numerous others. Much of this research can be found in publications on the Levy Institute’s website or in the book Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production, and Wealth (2006, Palgrave-Macmillan) by Godley and Lavoie. Also, as Eric noted, the SFB model presented here illustrates only financial flows; it is thus showing only a slice of what is presented in the larger models these authors have developed that integrate both flows and stocks coherently and consistently.

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The Sector Financial Balances Model of Aggregate Demand

By Scott Fullwiler

Paul Krugman’s recent post indicates that perhaps those of us taking a stock-flow consistent approach to macroeconomics may be making some headway. My fellow blogger, Rob Parenteau, and another friend, Bill Mitchellboth describe many of the details of this approach and how they fit the graph posted by Krugman. Rob is correct to suggest this would be a much better framework for understanding macroeconomics than the traditional IS-LM model, which was highly flawed to begin. My purpose here is to build on both of these posts and demonstrate a few uses of the model (thus, those not familiar with this framework should read Rob’s and/or Bill’s posts first, probably).To begin, consider the graph in Krugman’s post below:

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Why Negative Nominal Interest Rates Miss the Point

By Scott Fullwiler

Willem Buiter, Greg Mankiw, and Scott Sumner have all recently proposed negative nominal interest rates on reserves or currency as a way to stimulate consumer spending and bank lending. It may be nothing more than a coincidence, but the Swedish Riksbank just set the rate it pays banks on reserve balances at -0.25%, effectively taxing banks for holding reserve balances. But I think they are all missing the point, and here’s why.The classic example of a negative nominal interest rate—long suggested by a number of economists for avoiding deflation—is a tax on currency, which can be summarized in an example Mankiw provides:“Imagine that the Fed were to announce that, a year from today, it would pick a digit from zero to 9 out of a hat. All currency with a serial number ending in that digit would no longer be legal tender. Suddenly, the expected return to holding currency would become negative 10 percent. That move would free the Fed to cut interest rates below zero. People would be delighted to lend money at negative 3 percent, since losing 3 percent is better than losing 10. Of course, some people might decide that at those rates, they would rather spend the money — for example, by buying a new car. But because expanding aggregate demand is precisely the goal of the interest rate cut, such an incentive isn’t a flaw — it’s a benefit.”
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Loans, Asset Purchases, and Exit Strategies—Why the WSJ Doesn’t Understand the Fed’s Operations

by Scott Fullwiler

Some may have noticed a few weeks ago when the European Central Bank – the counterpart to the Federal Reserve in the Eurozone – conducted a one-day operation that resulted in $622 billion in 1-year loans to the European banking system. At the time, I and others wondered where the fanfare was, as a similar operation by the Fed would surely have resulted in an outcry about the inflationary impact of such a large “liquidity” injection. But a piece by Simon Nixon in the Wall Street Journal explains why there was so little fanfare. As Nixon put it:

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Don’t Fear the Rise in the Fed’s Reserve Balances

By Scott Fullwiler

Many in the financial press have noted the rise since September 2008 in the Fed’s reserve balances from about $20 billion to more than $800 billion today. A number of well-known economists have expressed concern that this will be inflationary.

However, fears that these are inflationary are misplaced, even inapplicable, as they apply only to a monetary system operating under a gold standard, currency board, or similar arrangement, not the flexible exchange rate system of the U. S.

Under a gold standard, for instance, banks must be careful when creating loans that they have sufficient gold or central bank reserves to meet depositor outflows or legal reserve requirements. This is the fractional banking, money multiplier system standard in the economics textbooks. If there is an inflow of gold, then bank deposit creation can increase and prices can rise. The same can occur if the central bank raises the quantity of reserves circulating relative to its own gold reserves.

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