So S&P has downgraded Brazil’s rating on long-term foreign currency debt to junk and lowered its long-term local currency sovereign credit rating to ‘BBB-‘ from ‘BBB+’.
First, what are sovereign debt ratings? Standard & Poor’s sovereign rating is defined as follows:
A current opinion of the creditworthiness of a sovereign government, where creditworthiness encompasses likelihood of default and credit stability (and in some cases recovery).
So that ratings are related to “a sovereign’s ability and willingness to service financial obligations to nonofficial (commercial) creditors.”
What does this tell us? To begin with, credit rating agencies have repeatedly been wrong. The same agencies that rated Enron investment grade just weeks before it went bust, the same people that assigned triple A rating to toxic subprime mortgage-backed securities are now downgrading Brazil sovereign debt. As the FCIC report pointed out “The three credit rating agencies were key enablers of the financial meltdown. The mortgage-related securities at the heart of the crisis could not have been marketed and sold without their seal of approval.” (FCIC 2011)
In an effort to bring MMT into the political debate in Spain, APEEP will be hosting Warren Mosler for his presentation of the Spanish translation of his book “The Seven Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy” during a one-week tour through Spain, starting with a presentation in Madrid, on the 14th of September; Valencia on the 15th of September; and Vila-real on the 17th of September.
For all our Italian speaking visitors, our friends over at RETE MMT have undertaken the arduous task of translating Randy Wray’s MMT Primer into Italian. The project is a work in progress and not all posts have been translated as yet. As they add to their list of translated posts, we will update this list to reflect their accomplishments. The links will take you directly to the relevant post on RETE MMT.
Posted onAugust 5, 2015|Comments Off on Three UMKC Professors Among The Nine Who Predicted Eurozone Crisis
KCUR.org feature includes recorded interview with Randy Wray and others regarding the current crisis in the eurozone. Randy explains that some economists predicted the problems with the European Monetary Union with an explanation of sectoral balances.
By Felipe Rezende
Hobart and William Smith Colleges
S&P has issued a negative outlook regarding Brazilian sovereign debt. The S&P’s announcement stated that “Over the coming year, failure to advance with (on- and off-budget) fiscal and other policy adjustments could result in a greater-than-expected erosion of Brazil’s financial profile and further erosion of confidence and growth prospects, which could lead to a downgrade. The ratings could stabilize if Brazil’s political certainties and conditions for consistent policy execution–across branches of government to staunch fiscal deterioration–improved. It is our view that these improvements would support a quicker turnaround and could help Brazil exit from the current recession, facilitating improved fiscal out-turn and provide more room to maneuver in the face of economic shocks consistent with a low-investment-grade rating.”
Julie Verhage and Alex Balogh have published a piece over at Bloomberg about 9 people who saw the Greek Crisis many years before everyone else did. Several names you will recognize from NEP. Three are from UMKC plus Warren Mosler. They warned about the euro system and crises like Greece. You can read the article here.
Pavlina Tcherneva discusses Greece’s Bailout with Richard Aldous on American Interest. You can listen here. She describes a deal that seems to contain more austerity than was initially proposed, and calls some of its economic incentives perverse. She discusses why the economic situation in Greece today is in some ways worse than was America’s Great Depression, and compares the decision to bail out Greece to Ireland’s austerity experience.