Tag Archives: harvard prediction market

Who Will Win This Year’s Nobel Prize in Economics?

By Stephanie Kelton

On Tuesday, October 4, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics to three US-born scientists who discovered that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate. On Monday, October 10, they’ll award the Prize to Robert J. Shiller for recognizing that the housing market can’t do the same. Or, maybe not . . . the polls are still open. Who do you think they’ll choose? Care to wager? It turns out, you can!

Since 2009, some economists at Harvard have been running a prediction market. For the price of $1.00, you can submit your pick. And, if you’re right, you get to share in the jackpot. But remember, this isn’t about picking the the economist whom you believe to be the most “worthy” recipient. This is about trying to figure out whose contributions the Academy will decide to honor. So it’s really more like Keynes’ beauty contest. 

The Rules

  • Nominate who you think will win.
  • Each name that you enter costs $1.
  • You can also guess that no entrant will correctly guess the recipient(s).
  • You can enter as many times for as many names you’d like.
  • Entries and payments must be RECEIVED BEFORE 11:59 PM EST ON SUNDAY, OCTOBER 9.
  • All of the money collected will be divided between the winners of the pool. 

And, yes, we’re aware that its called the Memorial Prize in Economics, but c’mon — it sounds so much more prestigious to call it the Nobel.